Sometimes Global Warming Isn’t the Issue

Bumbles bounce (back)

We were prepared for the worst.  In my area, we were told to expect 12-18” of snow or more, and that directly across the Hudson River from us, they would fare much worse.  Yesterday, people grocery shopped like it was 1899, when a major snowstorm really meant being snowed in for a few days.  Yesterday, people filled their cars’ gas tanks, as is suggested for any major storm regardless of the season.  They also filled gas cans to fill generators and snowblowers, possibly even a few snow-riding vehicles.  Yesterday, schools got out early and were actually closed for today’s classes as well.  Yesterday, the snow shovel and ice-breaking compound sales likely spiked a bit even this late in the season.  We watched forecasts and waited, perhaps a little anxiously, for that first flake to drop.  All these actions were taken in anticipation of what some were describing as “the worst snowstorm ever.” 

Yeah, well …

Today, my area is waking to 4” or less of dry snow which is still being blown around by winds from the same storm that turned and moved out to sea faster than most, if not all, the meteorologists predicted.  The roads are plowed.  The kids have off from school.  They’re thrilled now, but might not be so happy when vacation days are taken away to make up for the overused snowday allotment.  People have now stocked up on goods they may not need, but hey, they may get used anyway during the Super Bowl.  Generators didn’t run locally.  Snowblowers will likely get used, although what we got in my area could be swept out of the way with a broom – trust me, I know because I already did it and in record time.

There are those who will say that this intense storm, which is still impacting the New England area as I write this, was the result of global warming.  In the same breath, they would also say that the storm’s track was unpredictable because of the effects of global warming.  If pressed, most who believe this cannot explain how global warming is having such an impact on the weather, only that it is.

For myself, I believe that yesterday’s storm was a normal winter occurrence.  We have storms like this every season.  Sometimes, they do what’s expected, reminding us why we look forward to spring so much.  But sometimes, the storms are predicted to have the potential to make things miserable, only to not develop as anticipated or to move along a track that makes them less of a threat to the wide area which was supposed to get slammed. 

You can blame the weather forecasters all you like, but predicting how storms develop and move is not an exact science.  It’s based on historical weather data, on what we’ve seen other storms do in the same settings.  This is combined with the weather data of the moment.  There’s also a little, shall we say, meteorologist’s intuition thrown in which, like any foresight, doesn’t always work as well as we’d like.  Don’t kill the messenger.

As far as global warming, yes, I do believe it’s happening.  I don’t, however, believe that the impact is being felt currently as much as some believe it is.  The damage we’ve done to our environment was slow and even occasionally insidious.  The effects of our choices will be similar in how and when they are felt.  Wait a few more years, perhaps a decade or three, and then we will see and feel the consequence of our actions.  Perhaps in the future, we’ll be able to control our weather and not just perfectly predict it.  Before that can happen, though, we need to control ourselves and what we do to the world around us before it gets to the point where no one can get close to accurately forecasting what the weather will be. 

But for now, this was just another winter storm, just like the winter storms of days gone by and of days to come.  Still ultimately unpredictable in how they build and wander, these snowstorms will continue to be the boon of ski resorts and winter lovers worldwide and the bane of existence for the rest for a while yet.  Go forth end enjoy it or shovel and grumble, but remember that flowers will still bloom a few short months ahead.